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虽然知道离Busiess020 的最后考试还有一段时间。但是贴出来给大家先有个映像,别到考试的时候抱佛脚。我还会陆续贴出History028E的去年考试卷子。) j' V* R$ p8 O' U' v
* `! [8 P( Q" C7 z% R5 d, A$ ZGM Overview i1 ~7 X5 `* K/ k- S M/ c# ]
• Role, Timing, Issues/Decisions, C&Cs S! U" ~8 f) X; ~5 m
• Objectives
4 W0 w' U+ O# @, E0 u– What do we “WANT” to do?7 O; |6 b( q9 w- }
• External Analysis
7 P# U1 A9 v9 k% E– What do we “NEED” to do?
. T. F# {$ k0 X5 X' P% F. p$ D: X– PEST, Consumer, Competition, Trade7 m( F* E' K- P- k( x) W' w5 p/ T' }
• opportunities & threats
1 ]( P6 c$ V1 s4 q6 a– IMPLICATIONS: KSFs, X n- u% E. q/ m5 \( t
• Internal Analysis
$ @+ N* d- z' U, [2 B( W( I9 O– What “CAN” we do?
2 [* B$ Q/ H/ N7 l, V– Finance, Marketing, Ops, HR
& a% J ?. C2 C7 u! ?• abilities, strengths & weaknesses
# r+ K; h0 {; W% O, i* i8 [– IMPLICATIONS: KSFs, CORPORATE CAPABILITIES
* R$ ?* {5 @5 j7 V5 ]/ q$ ^* a; ]
/ R/ ^! r. T1 y/ F• Alternative Evaluation
6 J Y' R% m U6 u& z* |, S d– What are the options?4 B5 J% y3 R; _4 C9 y% ?# B2 E
– Evaluate the pros & cons of the options$ ]8 _! r( E, Q7 E3 F
– How does this option “FIT”?5 S0 E& r5 {; r
– (you may be able to eliminate options based exclusively on the poor “FIT”qualitatively - if so, make sure you explain why this option was nixed)
8 B6 o+ k! E. ?2 @2 ]* Y9 p' C– Financial Feasibility (of AT LEAST 2-3 options that might “work”)
6 h; r- a9 p1 T5 }% I9 e, r7 |" g
% \ v/ \0 K' `" x6 ?- S• Decision% n: E( M+ h) O: m1 ?$ R- Y
– Justify why you chose a particular option(s).$ _1 w. I2 n: S! w7 x4 o
– YOU SHOULD BE CONVINCING, ], f6 M4 u. |% R
• Which strategy best meets the firm’s objectives?
D4 l& F# `: N• Does it satisfy the personal objectives as well?! i' E8 T, j/ I% n- N/ V
• Have you addressed the cons of the chosen alternative?4 ^% T! B9 V* P
• Is this decision consistent with the analysis you’ve done? EXPLAIN! (FITS)6 c9 g; G$ j ?4 W- y
• Why NOT the other options?: h' Z b2 k" J. q; ?* A* ]1 J9 o
• How does this choice affect Finance, Marketing, Ops and HR? What changes, W0 Q. d: N9 c1 j
need to be made?
% Y) J3 W/ j7 U& J' W0 }: B) z! n# t: h+ s$ L" ~8 I
• Action Plan: q$ e2 ^; C: q, Z; Y, q t
• Map out a clear and precise implementation plan which includes;
! p& `* v& g4 l; }, ]– details which address what steps you have to take to implement your, t- \* n, {( P0 }
decision9 k1 H& `; _" y4 d5 ~1 x! z7 ^
– details about timing& d7 |0 ?, h* G& Q* ~& _) f
– details about WHO will be responsible for accomplishing the ‘task’ C# e% F2 ]" `, _- H) T: B4 V
– how will you follow-up your plan (measure success)
' Y' N9 l% F' i% M– make sure to consider both the short term and long term
$ b+ Q% s7 ?: Y
5 p7 J8 I$ V. J' Y' T# _( K& x8 HFirm Valuation
' m t1 {$ }5 G# d% x6 b o3 b• Used to help managers determine the “price” of a company.
, p( V- [4 K7 b• 3 methods of valuing a firm;
8 ~2 H: j9 \% Y4 g( `5 n– Net Book Value
" B; M, h$ m. [+ [; a$ W0 i– Economic Appraisal
$ i& t6 m m1 k: h, x+ Y/ m7 i1 H" s– Capitalization of Earnings* i, J, t6 ]+ g d. j7 w/ F
• Using all 3 methods (if possible) helps us to determine a RANGE of what the
; ^3 p) O J0 l) v {" Ecompany is worth.! P% p$ Q! ~1 H9 O1 \8 B2 s
• THINK!!! What are you really selling? Will anyone pay for it? How much will they pay???
) t8 y* c: k/ p3 V4 o
1 Q& U: U" K/ ^: h# R9 h7 p Net Book Value (NBV)8 a+ H+ g- _- y
– Total Assets - Total Liabilities+ O. U# ]$ w1 v
• a.k.a.. the equity
% z% n* @" g9 v9 t– Does not account for the present market value of the assets
% t8 }+ F$ F/ G) V2 b& S: B. X– Calculated using the most recent given balance sheet) d0 K; p' M. J. B
– Preferred method for banks, creditors, and/or buyers who are interested in selling off the assets of the business
( m Z& \; F- ?- Q+ M7 F- \$ y+ g. Z' O8 L9 ^& N4 O
Economic Appraisal (EA) y$ Q F c- I5 E' N/ m. [
– Similar to NBV, but tries to reflect the current market value of the assets
3 j- O$ i% ?" A4 ?; [– Total Appraised Assets – Total Liabilities
, r, r1 m L9 F- `4 {) x0 ?/ H1 {– Preferred by buyers who are interested in a company for its assets
0 R, l s1 {! h( H* Q0 ~% Y8 b
7 B* a# W6 I1 R. |" r O% R% } ]0 l Capitalization of Earnings (CE)
: V& s* v m& s/ o& f% v– Focuses on the I/S instead of the B/S+ {9 ~0 T3 x i6 H0 L3 h% V
• Attempt to value the company in terms of the future income it may provide.7 J9 h" b e; k
– NPAT * P/E ratio = value2 Q5 w9 n3 m9 f. ]6 R9 j
– Must evaluate two different earnings figures (to determine risk & range)
' ?6 t! I1 p% k! h& [# T! z4 j• Assuming changes (projected statement)/ Y3 V7 y2 _, \6 f
• Assuming no changes (current given I/S)
/ m3 D3 h* I" \+ K& B' p7 Y( F4 a– Select a reasonable P/E multiple
7 Z7 X8 A6 Z1 V# ^' Z: U2 x– Preferred by buyers interested in the ongoing operation of the company (i.e.taking over as management)1 ]7 X: j& V7 L2 e
2 t6 `5 [% t( h i& {• P/E Multiple) P, Z! F7 [: O1 b% D3 I) q
– Rules of thumb;
) ?9 `3 f) S( g5 Z• Mature industries with stable earnings tend to have multiples
, l" C p$ [; M4 o" P) Nfrom 5 to 15.0 m" S) `' y- Y$ h" X: ?+ ?4 D
• High growth industries tend to have multiples exceeding 20.
j& [( e6 n2 n1 l9 ?• “Growth is good; risk is rotten!”) ]% R# k: Z6 T- s3 Q) E" F: l7 L+ p
– growth increases a multiple$ v# J# u) U5 k3 h1 V2 V
– risk decreases a multiple
, ^& G& ] _/ s4 A
8 Y4 x+ Y. O3 t$ h5 @( S3 z& y; tTheir Associated Ratios
, i7 C* _3 g: ]# ?! @7 c• Profitability; k: A# {8 H3 t+ Q! D% ~
– Business goal - to make $$
0 \$ W+ w/ E' e3 d2 M– Ratios measures how much money we had to spend to make $X in sales
, e. g" [5 f j+ u, W) D5 |• Stability;
! d; K4 ?+ y5 ^; m( g- P* F– Business goal - to have a stable financial structure (balance its ownership of assets with debt and equity)
) a T9 I& H3 F1 t5 p4 G– Ratios measure the firm’s means of financing assets and ability to pay interest on debts. j) I0 O# O0 K
: q8 @7 d* j( o: y6 B5 Financial Goals &Their Associated Ratios; y: d, h8 m( D: G
• Liquidity;
, k, A+ j' M) @- c k" c– Business goal - ability to meet s-t obligations% K5 ?2 e- B; t) V$ `3 ?
– Ratios measure how liquid the firm is (how able the firm is to pay its shortterm" ~4 ^' |) r$ A& t- u8 G
obligations)
' ^8 }+ N& n5 I6 f6 k+ J3 }• Efficiency;
5 o' F0 L9 E$ C– Business goal - to efficiently use assets
9 {2 l* B8 y( l3 ~– Ratios tell us how efficiently we are using our investments. }+ a) i8 ?, U( M/ _) ^
+ ]3 a& d/ g5 K• Growth;
) S: f2 _! I: B$ \9 N; A– Business goal - to increase in size
7 f9 k4 r+ h, Q& N; m- k1 K– Ratios tell us whether the company is achieving any growth8 N+ z# c$ N1 M1 Y# l
2 {; [; z% B5 GInterpreting the Ratios
$ R3 F9 [$ [( E% R' ~' H• Profitability;; @$ h @' J$ h. c$ j
– Vertical Analysis (of I/S)0 n, t! M# ~$ R. X5 ~
I/S items * 100 = %
2 R, g/ ~* U) u+ W& _$ \* g Sales! w" t3 [2 G/ L) z) U8 Q
• Tells us it cost us X% of sales to make those sales
) B( K$ d0 J8 {0 p! x4 V– Return on Investment/Equity. R8 h: V8 r, l' L2 c+ }
Profit ATB4D = %
n3 I4 n4 [2 a, N8 y% YAverage Equity6 @3 q4 {( H; A5 L
[(Yr. 1 E + Yr. 2 E)/2]$ W+ t2 P- `% p. D6 f6 G# k9 O' o
• Tells us how much profit we made relative to the investment made by the owners+ T& Z1 H: _" H: V+ w0 F
7 {8 R) T8 f9 E! {: o: V
• Stability;! g5 E" Y. G+ v5 S- h
– Net Worth: Total Assets
& c G; w) F* r3 ~3 \Total Equity = % 7 S; v# H, J% e5 l5 @. A; z$ \
Total Assets
+ t) ^& u3 ^6 T* @4 f% V% W3 t# h L• tells us what % of assets were financed through owner’s money
" }: h+ J1 u* A& r( t– Debt to Assets* E, r" ]! `0 Z
Total Debt = %
; a' m3 [' ^% V% X& r7 y7 DTotal Assets
' y u% m- d( Z3 P: I! ^• Tells us what % of the assets were financed through debt
4 D# C7 Z) D) K* H8 C7 ~( a– Interest Coverage! e/ D$ I: k5 { J6 o3 ?1 P* a
EBIT = # times
5 ^7 ^0 ~( j$ Z eInterest Expense
7 k9 A- g. e. R H( X0 X" Y• tells us how many times we can pay interest
/ i8 _8 A( V4 r& k8 Z* b- b; }+ R3 e9 U. i3 b7 I1 b( \% m
• Liquidity;
0 R9 @; v$ _$ t' C4 w) D2 ?) j( I' A– Current Ratio* C" K+ r" [3 x- F' ~
Current Assets = X:1. w4 G3 q9 |3 }% s) O
Current Liabilities
$ o: N" b( y0 e- `• Tells us, if we liquidated all our current assets, how many times we can pay our debts9 {, K. U6 u5 I
RULE OF THUMB: 2:1
q- x& k" p6 t. q– Acid Test
3 ]5 Q1 x- p o8 j/ BCash + M/S + A/R = X:1
* B5 P2 k2 L5 JCurrent Liabilities
0 S6 C8 ~1 m$ l• Tells us how many times we can pay our debts with the money easily available to us
5 Y& D, I; ?* o/ nRULE OF THUMB: 1:10 P" V7 w2 ], H. b( [( a, ?0 S2 B M
) i4 K8 k, [: P V% Q# n– Working Capital
& O7 E( Q/ k% j8 q) t1 K" N5 VC.A - C.L = $X
5 v6 Y. t% b' D5 }0 R• Tells us how much money we have to work with AFTER s-t debts are paid: U o) S0 x; I+ C' `
6 t! t' E& U5 T$ u F+ X' Y. u5 \( W
Efficiency;
6 ^) i3 { X, ]% u. P1 {# B– Age of Receivables, v$ z- r( J O9 B0 S% I2 c7 U: c& ^
Accounts Receivabl = # Days8 O8 x; w% j1 R: y" t/ |
(Sales / 365)+ x+ f) w' J3 h
• Tells us how long it takes us to collect our $$
" ]9 T: P/ Q, `) p
% C+ k& s! W4 a- y5 ^- [– Age Of Payables7 r! T) ?% ]; t
Accounts Payable = # Days
7 C, j: j( p/ r/ |1 u(Purchases* / 365)
: e1 ~. G0 {# w( O5 Y+ p• Tells us how long it takes us to pay our bills3 u7 G3 A; t, H6 S0 n
- s* `( b+ \- r" g# C, |" A
– Age of Inventory
$ L8 ^( N1 }3 g# x Inventory = # Days
. S2 {6 w. w- W! e7 v(COGS / 365)# p3 p9 A' J( F0 {! c5 p+ F$ V
• Tells us how long we are holding on to our inventory in the warehouse
# x: ^/ S/ U0 f* ]
7 V: s: S a3 ]' S6 d# T& w2 n" P5 [• Growth;
: ~. L/ q' [" `– Sales# X" L1 p8 q5 w, o4 k
– Net Income
) J9 `8 }' S& Q5 U0 X8 ~: E$ u* a– Total Assets
8 T- E2 ?7 a4 U. _# n7 T– Equity
$ W1 N8 _8 ?9 w3 I/ yYr. 2 - Yr. 1 = %; {$ X8 e4 S4 R- M# V w7 F
Yr. 1
! V2 Z( ?( \2 j U- f S- j9 J* Y• Tells us whether the accounts are growing (and hence the company)
& @ W0 g b6 S/ x3 o0 T* x4 p1 [6 K2 z1 _/ Q7 p6 c( N& k
Understanding Ratios
^; k# k: c4 A; N3 W• DO NOT CONCLUDE THAT “THE RATIO IS GOOD/BAD”4 {1 _' Z1 N- F: u. K; p8 J
• Either the NUMERATOR or the DENOMINATOR affects the ratio; X$ [7 Q0 ?# V6 l" T
• Ask yourself: “WHY HAS THE RATIO CHANGED & WHAT DOES THIS MEAN?”
+ h1 O/ s. i2 \– Which number caused the change?
2 e9 X3 I4 |% [' b– Look for increasing or decreasing trends over time.
4 K' S& b9 ~6 q+ u4 Z3 {6 I– Will these trends continue?
; X9 E1 u. l+ @. b6 n– How does the company compare to the industry?
+ \1 X2 `& m/ f# V; w H" M' g8 p& P8 h8 ~+ {. f
. P# y! J+ [7 }) W# d1 Q4 j- {Classifying Costs$ {4 R; N( |" t4 _! m" T3 v3 }
• Variable Costs
7 E, K8 {# g# g– a cost incurred with every unit sold/produced (volume)/ B1 P8 Q+ L% n. t- _- H
• Fixed Costs
7 K! a$ ~0 z& a– cost that does not vary with volume |
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