今天看到首页新闻说降息了，发现一篇分析不错

大树

新客户广告位
更多广告请点击
中文黄页

http://www.thespec.com/news-stor ... -cut-won-t-help-us/
4 reasons the Bank of Canada’s interest rate cut won’t help us
Hamilton Spectator
+ G/ |# A1 k4 L' c$ DBy Adam Mayers


9 f0 |* u* ~; D$ s

•NOT MUCH RELIEF

If interest rates are at 15 per cent – not far off what I was paying for my first mortgage – and fall to 10 per cent, that's a 33 per cent decline and puts a huge amount of money in your pocket.

If the rate is 0.75 per cent and falls to 0.50, it's the same 33 per cent drop, but the saving is negligible. By the time it filters down through the banking system to your line of credit, the difference may add up to a Big Mac meal.

Wednesday's move by the central bank means the banks will likely lower consumer borrowing costs a little. The betting is that they'll give us 10 basis points and they'll keep the other 15. TD Bank was first off the mark, doing just that.

So, suppose you're a good bank customer. Your $100,000 secured line of credit is at prime, plus half a point, or 3.35 per cent (2.85 plus .50). You're making an interest-only payment each month which comes to $279 a month.

The bank passes on 10 basis points. Your new combined rate is 3.25 per cent, or $271 a month. Spend that $8 wisely.

•INDIFFERENT BUSINESSES

Businesses who need money to invest are already borrowing. This rate cut won't make a difference to their plans.

"Another 25 basis points will do little to make or break a financing decision," CIBC World Markets deputy chief economist Benjamin Tal said in a recent briefing note.With so many firms hoarding cash, the money they raise isn't actually going into investments anyway. They're either hanging on to it until conditions are clearer, or buying back company shares to boost the price of their stock.

•INDIFFERENT CONSUMERS

Tal argued that many consumers see the low rates as normal. He's right, in that anybody 45 or younger has only lived in an environment of falling interest rates. So 10 basis points off is just more of the same and unlikely to generate much interest. A CIBC survey this week supports that notion. It finds little appetite for new borrowing with 93 per cent of its sample saying they are unlikely to take on more debt if rates dropped. A third said they'd accelerate debt repayment.

•DROOPING DOLLAR

Economist have noted that the January rate cut did send the dollar lower, but did little to accelerate growth, even as the loonie fell from 87 cents to about 82 cents and now 78 cents.

This cut may push the dollar down a penny or two more, but again it's the same law of diminishing returns. The drop will be modest relative to its fall from parity in 2011.

So what's left?

Governments have two tools to stimulate the economy. One is monetary policy which raises and lowers rates. The other is fiscal policy which spends money to create demand. This creates jobs and by giving people more money to spend, increases demand: The virtuous circle.

Finance Minister Joe Oliver said in an interview last week his government isn't about to spend any more than it is now, sticking to its goal of a balanced budget this year.

burberryfrance

不明觉厉